Moved to Wang's World!!

Hi, this is "HappyTrading(tm)!" I'm blogging on "Wang's Happy Trading"
now. Thank you so much for reading my posts. In the future, please go to:
http://www.wangshappytrading.com/

4/19/07 Review: Nasdaq, SOX, SPX, DOW, NSTK

The markets didn't do much today; perhaps nervous about GOOG's earnings? DOW made another new high. SP 500, or SPX, was pretty much flat. SOX added to yesterday's gain.

NasdaqNasdaq managed to close above the 2500 support level to close at 2505.35. It needs to catch...

***If you want to read the rest of the post, please click here to go to Wang's World!

Everyone Likes Google!!

On 4/14/07, I posted an article titled "Everyone Will Be Talking About Google!," in which I discussed a possible "bullish earnings reaction" pattern based on the earnings seasons in the past 3 years. Now, that Google has delivered "excellent" earnings, let's see how much everyone "likes" Google (GOOG)!

In AH, GOOG traded as high as 495+, but, settled at 486.8, up 15.15. I think this is not the proper response! With a report card like today's (3.68/share), which beats the "highest" estimate (3.52) by .16 (the average was 3.31; a beat of .37!), GOOG should be above 500 already! If GOOG doesn't go above 500 after this kind of earnings, I'd ask "When will it?" and "How will it?"

***If you want to read the rest of the post, please click here to go to Wang's World!

4/18/07 Review: Nasdaq, DOW, SPX, SOX, OIH, GLD, GOOG, EBAY, JPM

Hello! It’s “Wang’s World”, HappyTrading’s new home!! What an auspicous day it is to have my first post here on a day that the DOW makes a new, all-time, high!! Woohoo! Wang’s World, Wang’s World, money time, happy time!! =) Ok, had to do a little impersonation; I promise I will “tryyyyy” to “behaaaave”!

Thanks to Phil Davis for inviting me to blog with him on PSW! And, hello to Sage, Zman; and many thanks to Jared!

Ok, where do we start? Oh, yes, the DOW!
New all-time high, just climbing the upper BB! (Why do I keep on hearing Mike Myer’s voice saying what I’m typing?!) It is above 12800 boys and girls! SPX, the SP 500 index, shares the same qualities as DOW’s charts, “just climbing the upper BB”.

Nasdaq had a little more difficult time today, even though the SOX took off! IBM and YHOO may have something to do with it...

***If you want to read the rest of the post, please click here to go to Wang's World!

I'm moving to Wang's World!!

Since there are so many mergers happening on the stock market these days, it's not too surprising that blog sites can merge, too, right? I'm moving over to Phil's Stock World, with my own blog page, Wang's World!

Please come by and you can find out a little more about me. I'll still be posting as "HappyTrading"! And, I'll still have lots of fun charts everyday!

So, come by and check me out!
click here: Wang's World

TSO Sliding...

Yesterday, I mentioned that it might be time to start betting against TSO, and starting getting 1/2 the short position that you might have had in mind to get into. Now, it might be time to add the other half.
TSO is now under its 10-day MA.
The intraday chart shows that it is sliding on the hourly bottom MA, and the MACD is still not flattening!

4/17/07 Review: Nasdaq, NYX, SP 500, DOW, INTC, IBM

Wow, that was another "exciting" day, huh?! Ok, it's healthy to rest a bit after days of continuous excitement. The markets were pretty much flat today. A little consolidation was perhaps what the markets needed to continue this rally. SP 500 stayed above its Feb. high. The DOW made a small gain of 52.58, while Nasdaq gave up just 1.38.

Nasdaq daily chart:
Nasdaq closed right above its daily upper BB. MAs are still going up nicely, and so is the MACD.

Nasdaq intraday chart:
Perhaps the intraday chart shows a more meaningful picture. The "little rest" today allowed Nasdaq to let off some steam in the MFI, while not losing any altitude. Now, it has more room to continue to up-trend. Perhaps we'll see it continue to climb its upper BB!

One interesting stock today was NYX. It gained 2.95 to close at 96.15, above the range that it had been trapped in for a week. It had a nice buying volume and looks like it might try testing 100, again, soon!

Both INTC and IBM reported solid earnings AH. So, let's see if the markets will continue to push upwards.

Short On TSO?

Almost a week ago, I looked at TSO, and thought it might be good to wait a little before betting against it. Now, it seems like the time may be getting ripe.

TSO got a downgrade from Citigroup, and started to slide 2 days ago.

The daily chart shows that it is touching the 10-day MA, which often acts as a support. It might be time to get half the short position that you might have in mind to get (that is, if you're not already in). I'd be more comfortable if TSO goes under the 10-day MA, which would probably bring it quickly to around 105.

The intraday chart shows that MFI and RSI look like they are bottoming, but, the MACD seems to carry with it some downward momentum (i.e. it is not flattening).

4/16/07 Review: Nasdaq, SP 500, SOX, Biotechs, OIH, GLD

The markets had some great performances today. As mentioned earlier, the SP 500 index, SPX, has already surpassed its Feb. high, while the Nasdaq and the DOW are in position to challenge theirs. SOX managed to eke out a gain. The biotechs are still hot! Both OIH and GLD made good advances. And, there are lots of mergers and acquisitions going on! It's an exciting time to be in the markets!

Nasdaq Nasdaq caught up with its daily upper BB today and it is within range to overtake its Feb. high! The daily MAs are curving up even more, gaining momentum!

SOX SOX managed to eke out a gain, but, need some big moves to catch up with other sectors. The good thing is that the daily MAs seem to start to curve up again! It needs good earnings news from some of the big industry names, such as INTC and TXN! If these big semiconductor stocks start to run, it should provide SOX with some needed momentum.

OIH Another nice advance for OIH. It's riding the upper BB up nicely. Buying volume increased again. Although the daily techinical indicators may be toppy, the month chart still shows room for more upwards action!

GLD GLD had a little breakout today. Closing above its 6-month high of 68 on high volume!

Markets are hot!! Let's hope that SOX, the semiconductors, will start catching up with the other sectors this week! Happy trading!

Markets Going Higher!

The markets are very strong today. And, SP 500 index, SPX, is already above the Feb. high, and has caught the upper BB on the daily chart. It is likely to go higher from here!
It's great to see the consecutive "up" days to catch the upper BB. This is the type of action that I was anticipating last week! Nasdaq and the DOW have both caught their daily upper BB also, but, still waiting to break through their Feb. highs.

Some Interesting Biotech Stocks: ILE, ISIS, VPHM, BMRN

The members of PSW have been talking about some biotech stocks (who's not?). I thought I'd look at the charts on some of them:

ILE
Watch out! This one has caught the monthly upper BB!

ISIS This one is just showing some bullish signs forming. The 10-day MA is above the 20- and is above the 30-day MA. Breaking above 10.5 could really get going!

VPHM Has been rising strongly with increasing volume. This one might go all the way to 18 before any meaningful resistance!

BMRN If BMRN breaks away from 18, it might see a 52-wk high!

Its intraday chart shows that it might be ready to run again!

Happy trading!

Everyone will be talking about Google!!

After the markets closed on Friday, Google, GOOG, announced that it will acquire DoubleClick for $3.1B in an all-cash deal! This piece of news makes things lots more interesting because GOOG is reporting earnings on Thursday, 4/19. Let's take a look at some charts to see if we can find some clues as to how GOOG will trade in the coming week.

GOOG's daily chart:
This is a bit difficult to extract information from. The positive thing that I see here is that the daily MAs are moving up, with the 10- above 20- above the 30-day MA. And, GOOG managed to close right above the 10-day MA. It would be interesting to see how GOOG moves with the "DoubleClick" news early next week before the earnings report.

GOOG's weekly chart: GOOG's weekly chart shows that it has been rising and creating higher highs and higher lows for the past 5 weeks; and, the MACD, MFI, and RSI are recovering!

So, overall, GOOG seems to have a bullish bias right now. Let's take a look at GOOG's past earning seasons and see if we can find some more clues!

Since August 2004, there have been 5 instances where GOOG jumped after its earnings. Let's zoom in and take a look at each one.

Case #1: Oct 20041) GOOG sits above all the daily MAs before the earnings with the MAs in bullish formation: 10- above 20- above 30-day MA.

2) MACD is flat with room to go up.

Case #2 Apr 2005:1) GOOG sits above all the daily MAs before the earnings with the MAs in bullish formation: 10- above 20- above 30-day MA.
2) MACD is flat with room to go up.

Case #3 Oct 2005:

1) GOOG has its MAs intermingled, trying to sort out directions before earnings, with 30-day MA heading slightly up

2) MACD flat with room to go up

Case #4 Oct 2006:

1) GOOG is just below the 10-day MA with the MAs in bullish formation: 10- above 20- above 30-day MA.
2) MACD is flat with room to go up.

Case #5 APR 2006:
I pulled this on out of the cronological order, as a special case, because although it did jump right after the earnings, but, it didn't continue further. Let's analyze its characteristics:

1) GOOG sits above all the daily MAs before the earnings with the MAs in bullish formation: 10- above 20- above 30-day MA.
2) MACD is flat, but with little room to go up.

So, what's my conclusion about the pattern of favorable earnings reaction on GOOG, if there's a pattern to find?

1) We're looking for the daily MAs to show a bullish trend, most desirably with 10- above 20- above 30-day MA

2) If GOOG does jump, in order for it to continue to go up after the earnings has come out, the MACD needs to show room to go up, preferably flat with slightly up indication before the earnings.

Now, what do we have presently? We already know that GOOG shows a bullish bias from the studies of both daily and weekly charts. But, does the present situation show the characteristics of a possible, bullish reaction to earnings?

1) GOOG sits above all the daily MAs before the earnings with the MAs in bullish formation: 10- above 20- above 30-day MA.
2) MACD is flat with room to go up
Here's the present 6-months chart to show that MACD has lots of room to go up still!

So, I think the present situation shows that we have a pretty good chance to see bullish reaction to GOOG's earnings this week. Also, a sharp observer might have noticed that all the bullish earning seasons are in April and October, and, every April and October has brought jumps in GOOG's stock the day after earnings! Now, it's April! We'll have to see how GOOG trades in the days preceding the earnings report and see if the "bullish-earnings-reaction" characteristics hold up before the report comes out.

Happy trading!

4/13/07 Weekend Review: Nasdaq, SP 500, OIH, GLD, biotechs, SOX

That was a fun week! The major indices are pretty much back to the levels before the February sell-off, with SP 500 closing just above its respective level. Biotechs are the darlings of the markets right now; they are hot!! SOX, the semiconductors, is still trying to sort out a direction. The oils and metals continue to charge upwards. Since it's the end of a week, we'll be looking at some weekly charts:

Nasdaq gave us another good day on Friday!
It is less than 9 points away from 2500, the level before the sell-off. The daily MAs are moving up nicely, and both the MACD and the RSI are going strong!

The week was a great week for Nasdaq! We can see higher highs and higher lows on Nasdaq's weekly chart, and the SAR has just turned up. Weekly MACD and RSI continue to rise!

SPX, SP 500, is still strong! It's weekly chart shows that it closed "above" the level before the sell-off (1450), and it's ready to test the February high at around 1461, less than 9 points away!

The oil service companies, represented by OIH, have gone higher, also! Its weekly chart shows a very bullish picture: has caught up with the weekly upper BB; MAs lined up with 10- above 20- above the 30-week MA; its MACD, MFI, RSI, and volume are all rising strongly!

GLD, or gold, is not doing bad either: GLD is almost touching the weekly upper BB; its SAR has turned up; MACD, MFI, and RSI are rising, also!

So, the markets seem to be ready to test the Feb. highs! Nasdaq is getting stronger with lots of help from the biotechs. We still need to see the semiconductors join the rally and break above its multi-year range. The oils and metals are still strong!

4/12/07 Review: Nasdaq, SPX, SOX, BTK, OIH, FXI

Great day today for the markets! Pretty much non-stop buying! Nasdaq recovered all of its losses from yesterday, and then some! SP 500 and the DOW didn't do too badly, either. SOX, the semiconductors, joined in. And, the biotechs are on fire, as the AMEX biotech index, BTK, closed above 800 (all-time high, set in 2000, was about 811)!

With the biotechs and the semis running strong, Nasdaq had a great day!
Nasdaq managed to close above 2480! In the chart, we can see that all daily MAs are now rising up and the 10- is above the 20- is above the 30-day MA. These could be bullish signals to pick up more momentum. Maybe we'll start to see some consecutive "up" days to catch the upper BB and, perhaps, to test the Feb. highs!

The oil services, OIH, seemed strong, still.It gained almost 3 points to catch up with its daily upper BB on solid buying volume!

And, it seems like the chinese stocks are hot again, as the ETF tracking the chinese stocks, FXI, gave another good showing.
FXI, with a 2.48% gain, also caught up with its upper BB on rising volume!

LAM Research, LRCX, reported good earnings AH. This might give the SOX some more fuel tomorrow. It sure needs more momentum to push through its multi-year range. And, Nasdaq might be able to push higher with both biotechs and semiconductors leading the way!

Some Interesting Stocks: PDLI, AMAG, CMCSA, INFY, AKAM

PDLI
buyout rumor, jumped 7.78% today.

AMAG
good drug trial results, up 11+% AH.

CMCSA
buying fandango + "business on fire," says the CEO.

INFY
upgrade from Goldman

AKAM
Citigroup coverage with "buy" rating and target of $68!

4/11/07 Review: Nasdaq, SP 500, DOW

So, once again, the Feds spooked investors! =) The timing was about right, though. It's about time the markets take a little rest. Let's take a look to see where we are at:

The Nasdaq closed above support (2456.5) at 2459.31.
What's positive for today was that the 30-day MA finally turned up! We'll have to see now if the 10-day MA can act as a support, while the intraday charts work off some steam!

Nasdaq intraday: On the intraday chart, we can see that Nasdaq really hit the tops of this near-term cycle at the end of last week. It was able to sustain the levels as things started to cool off earlier this week; probably people wanted to wait and see what comes out of the Fed's minutes.

The DOW faired a little less well.
It closed below the support around 12500, but, it did bounce off of the 10-day MA. The SP 500 shows similar charts to Nasdaq.

Now, the test is to see how fast can the bulls regroup, whether the 10-day MA will be strong enough as a support, and, if it is, whether the indices can continue the uptrend to re-test the Feb highs.

Intraday View on the Markets: SPX

Well, the Feds certainly don't have their comfy shoes on, which also made the markets nervous. The markets are testing the support levels right now. I'm looking at a chart on the SPX, or SP 500 to try to see what people are thinking:

The SPX is just below the support level at around 1439 (the other major indices are in similar situations with their respective support levels). If it manages to come back and close above this level, it could be a bullish sign, because the 30-day MA has finally turned up!

TSO just keeps on going...

Many people have been betting against TSO, 'cause it's risen so high. But, some of them are getting caught by its upwards strength. Let's look at some charts:

Daily chart:
The daily chart shows that TSO is climbing the upper BB nicely, without really going over it. The MFI and RSI, however, are getting toppy.

How about the weekly chart? The weekly chart shows that TSO are acting nicely and just climbing the weekly upper BB, even if it gets to about 112. The weekly MFI and RSI are also getting toppy.

Because the MFI and the RSI are getting toppy, I would not go chasing after it. But, maybe I'll wait to bet against it. At least until the stock has come below the 10-day MA.

4/10/07 Review: Nasdaq, SP 500, SOX, GLD, OIH, AA

Markets had a good day today with the major indices all closed in the green. Even SOX, the semiconductors, had a good day!

Nasdaq, up 8.43, at 2477.61!
If we look closely, we can see that Nasdaq's 30-day MA is starting to flatten out. A few more consecutive up days should turn it up; but, we'll need to see some strong days, up 20-30 points, to catch up with the upper BB! The MACD and RSI are still rising nicely!

We can see the 30-day MA action more clearly from the SP 500, SPX: See the 30-day MA flattening?! SPX is almost back to the level before the sell-off. Breaking above this level, which is about 1450, should bring a test of the Feb high!

SOX had a strong day! It closed up 3.81, at 476.58. Its MACD just turned positive today. We should see some continued, upwards momentum tomorrow!

GLD, ETF tracking gold, also went up today. Looks like it's starting to move along the upper BB!

OIH, ETF for the oil service industry, made a new 6-months high!
It closed above 150, a psychological barrier, at 152. 52-wk high is at 169.75. It's getting toppy, but, the upwards momentum is still strong, and the monthly chart says there's still room to go!

AA reported earnings above estimates in AH. Let's see if it can help bring some more positive energy to the markets tomorrow. We still need a few more up days to get those 30-day MAs turned!

Quick Notes To Self: CNI, NETL, CYMI, QLGC

CNI
Buffett lit up the railroads. CNI is one from the group that still has a lot of room.

NETL
Nice rise today when it raised its own growth outlook.

CYMI
Still rising from few days ago.

QLGC
Upgrade on the sector.

New Highs: VIP, ATI, NIHD

Quite a few stocks on my list made new highs today.

VIP went above 100 today! Wow!
It's reporting on Thursday, 4/12. It might have a little more to go before then.

ATI had a nice day. Broke above 114! It caught up with its upper BB. Cooled off a little before the close, but, this thing should go high!

NIHD is starting to ride the upper BB.
It also caught the upper BB. Might be looking at 80s before resting.